Israel has defied all forecasts.
Almost double that of Turkey and the hostile state: Israel has defied all forecasts. The International Monetary Fund raises its growth forecasts for Israel to 4.5%, thus exceeding the estimates of the Ministry of Finance.…
Assessment
The IMF has raised its 2026 growth forecast for Israel to 4.5 percent, nearly double the projections for Turkey and Iran. This revision significantly exceeds the Israeli Finance Ministry's own estimates, suggesting the international body sees structural strengths the domestic budget office may be undercounting. The gap between Israel's upgraded outlook and the weaker forecasts for Spain, Ireland, and the hostile state named alongside Turkey points to divergent regional economic trajectories. Watch whether the Finance Ministry adjusts its fiscal planning to match the IMF's more optimistic baseline.